A Blue Line loop is the option that Metro officials say would attract the most new ridership. Metro/WMATA hide caption
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Metro/WMATA
Late this year, Metro's board will decide whether to embark on its biggest rail expansion since the Silver Line.
Metro has long been studying solutions to capacity issues in the Rosslyn Tunnel under the Potomac River, and they include everything from just adding more buses to creating a dozen or more new stations and a new rail line in the next 20-plus years. It could serve some sought-after rail transit deserts like Georgetown, Buzzard Point, the renovated St. Elizabeth's campus, Oxon Hill, National Harbor, Ivy City, West End, Port Towns, and more. The costs could range from $3 billion to $40 billion.
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All sounds cool, right?
*record needle scratch*
But what about Metro's $750 million fiscal cliff we've heard about in recent weeks? Metro notes that's an operational budget issue that can limit their ability do things like run trains and buses, and pay workers. This is a separate capital budget item that focuses on building new and maintaining old infrastructure. These types of projects are also a decade or more down the road from being built. Metro may not even decide to build any of these new stations or lines. However, if they do decide to move forward, Metro will likely need to find a dedicated, reliable source of funding before these ideas are executed.
WMATA officials who briefed the media on Monday acknowledged it is challenging to talk about the near-term fiscal cliff and structural operating deficit and these larger regional plans, but they say it is important for the region to continue planning for these larger visionary plans even while working through short and medium-term structural issues.
Metro officials also say they want to take advantage of new funding through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, but they need to get into project development in order to apply for those grants. However, they say there is no commitment to build anything until a funding agreement is in place.
On Thursday, Metro's board will hear a review of the problem and solutions, though no decisions will be made. Another round of public input is set for July 17 to Sept. 30. A decision on what to do could come by the end of the year.
The Rosslyn Problem
The Rosslyn tunnel serves the Orange, Blue, and Silver lines and can carry 26 trains per hour. Metro used to run rush hour service that was limited by that capacity, but Metro is now scheduling 16 trains an hour through the tunnel and soon hopes to run 20 trains per hour in the coming months.
Metro identified the capacity issue in 2002 and has studied the issue on and off since then. The current study began in 2019, but the situation then was much different than today. Ridership has returned to only 60% of pre-pandemic levels, and trains are not as packed as they once were during rush hour. However, Metro is still running close to the maximum number of trains and expects ridership to continue to rebound.
Metro says that even if it ran the maximum number of eight-car trains, ridership projections say that crowding is expected to be a big issue by as soon as 2040. The ridership projections were created pre-pandemic, but planners want to wait to re-analyze until ridership solidifies into a "new normal".
However, projections for regional population growth are not changing. By 2040, Metro projects a 37% population growth along the three lines and a 30% increase in jobs along the corridors.
Metro officials say the tunnel creates more than just problems for ridership. Having three lines running on the same trunk through downtown means delays can compound and affect other lines.
The Solutions
Metro says new lines could improve equity transit accessibility in lower-income areas, and improve sustainability by getting more people on transit.
The public was last updated about the project in 2021 when Metro officials said a Blue Line loop would generate the most ridership but also cost the most. That holds true today, but costs have gone up considerably thanks to inflation. For instance, in 2019 Metro said the Blue Line loop to National Harbor would cost $20-25 billion, but now estimates put the project at $30-35 billion. Operating costs could be up to another $200 million a year.
While those numbers may be eye-popping, Metro says there is an opportunity cost.
The region is already spending $33 billion on nearly 900 miles of new roads by 2045. Building those roads would still lead to a 45% increase in congestion and increase the need for parking.
By building more rail lines, Metro says it will attract more riders, spur economic growth, give low-income residents faster access to more jobs, and help the environment, while also easing the burden on regional roads.
The rail options would include a mix of underground, above-ground, and at-grade tracks. It's too early in the process to know what method of construction Metro would use, but many rail and tunnel projects have moved away from the construction nightmare of tearing up the street, laying tunnels and tracks, and repaving. Most use tunnel boring machines that create far less mess above ground. Any of these projects could be broken up and built in phases.
The project was originally set to be selected in 2022, but was delayed with the pandemic and the arrival of new General Manager Randy Clarke who had to focus on pressing matters of returning the 7000-series trains to service and opening seven new stations.
Metro so far is not recommending any particular solution. They want to get more public input before doing so.
However, they did order the alternatives based on how well each project meets its goals. Let's take a look at each option from the top rated to the lowest.
Blue Line Loop
This option would build a new tunnel under the Potomac and separate the Blue Line under M Street between Georgetown and Union Station.
It would also create a dozen new stations including a second Rosslyn station, Georgetown, West End, another Farragut station, two unnamed stations between Farragut and Union Station, Buzzard Point, St. Elizabeth's, Bolling AFB, Forest Heights, Oxen Hill and National Harbor. It would also increase the number of transit options available near Audi Field and other development in that part of the city.
New transfer points include Rosslyn, Farragut, Mt Vernon Square, Union Station, Capitol South, and Navy Yard.
This realignment would serve fast-growing areas such as Buzzard Point, St. Elizabeths, and National Harbor, before crossing over the Woodrow Wilson Bridge to Alexandria and reconnecting at Huntington.
It would generate 180,000 new trips and cost $30-35 billion to build.
Silver Line Express and extension to Greenbelt
A proposed Silver Line expansion. Metro/WMATA hide caption
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Metro/WMATA
This option would separate the Silver Line, allowing express trains through Arlington and cutting down on travel time for far-out Virginia residents. It would also create a new tunnel under the Potomac and a new line through D.C. and Prince George's County to Greenbelt.
A mix of local and express trains would run between West Falls Church Station, a second Ballston station, and a second Rosslyn Station. It would be Metro's first express line, skipping some stations.
It would create 15 new stations including a second Ballston station, a second Rosslyn station, Georgetown, West End, another Farragut station, two unnamed stations between Farragut and Union Station, Capitol Hill, Starburst, Ivy City, Fort Lincoln, Port Towns, Hyattsville, and new companion stations at College Park and Greenbelt.
New transfer points include Rosslyn, Farragut, Mt Vernon Square, Union Station, College Park, and Greenbelt.
This realignment would serve ritzy areas of Georgetown, West End, and Capitol Hill, and lower-income areas in Northeast D.C., and Prince George's County.
It would generate 139,000 new trips and cost $35-40 billion to build.
Silver Line to New Carrollton
Another proposed Silver Line expansion. Metro hide caption
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Metro
This option would separate the Silver Line, create a new tunnel under the Potomac, and a new line through D.C. and Prince George's County to New Carrollton.
It would create 12 new stations including a second Rosslyn station, Georgetown, West End, another Farragut station, two unnamed stations between Farragut and Union Station, Union Market, Ivy City, Fort Lincoln, Port Towns; then it would head along Annapolis Road to Landover Hills, and end at New Carrollton.
New transfers include Rosslyn, Farragut, Mt. Vernon Square, Union Station, and New Carrollton.
This realignment would serve ritzy areas of Georgetown, West End, and Capitol Hill, and lower-income areas in Northeast D.C., and Prince George's County.
It would generate 94,000 new trips and cost $25-30 billion to build.
Blue Line to Greenbelt
A proposed expansion of the Blue Line. Metro/WMATA hide caption
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Metro/WMATA
This option would separate the Blue Line, create a new tunnel under the Potomac, and a new line through D.C. and Prince George's County to Greenbelt.
It would create 13 new stations including a second Rosslyn station, Georgetown, West End, another Farragut station, two unnamed stations between Farragut and Union Station, Union Market, Ivy City, Fort Lincoln, Port Towns, Hyattsville, and new companion stations at College Park and Greenbelt.
New transfer points include Rosslyn, Farragut, Mt Vernon Square, Union Station, College Park, and Greenbelt.
This realignment would serve lower-income areas in Northeast D.C., and Prince George's County.
It would generate 92,000 new trips and cost $25-30 billion to build.
Bus alternatives and rail changes
Some of the low-cost proposals call for more commuter bus routes or creating higher capacity/more efficient Bus Rapid Transit routes, which could carry more people into D.C. While that would meet demand in 2040, it would only work if service is good enough to draw riders away from rail. It would require a lot of investment from local jurisdictions to build bus-only lanes and bus rapid transit stations.
Metro could also look at cutting off the Silver Line at West Falls Church, requiring a transfer into D.C. It could also turn Blue Line trains around at Stadium-Armory, which would ease capacity on the tunnel, but mean more transfers for riders.
These solutions only encouraged only 16,000 new riders but cost considerably less at only $3-5 billion.
Nothing at all
Metro could build... nothing. And while it's free, it still has opportunity costs of continued problems of congestion and crowding along the east-west corridor.
This story was updated with more detailed information about the current number of trains running through the tunnel.
